Despite losing 2 Italian teams, Italian ranking prediction went up and Germans down. That is because, a.o. HSV losing their first spot to Hapoel and this way, according to my sheets, be eliminated in EL-1/16F.
Of course now we are awaiting the draw tomorrow. It will not affect my sheets, maybe for the 1/8th final, but FOr ourselves we can see more clear what the chances are of the teams to get further.
It's clear that top 9-12 (Portugal, Holland, Turkey and Greece) are all getting closer this year to 6-8(Russia, Ukraine and ROmania. OK ROmania will drop out of this hard next year, but further next year will be a very interesting battle
Why am I talking about next year this year is already extremely close: Look at Portugal, Holland and Turkey, all got 2-3 teams in and not light teams. Generaly in the EL are mostly big names/teams are playing. This might become a great EL year (if the teams are interested).
Finally a new update from me. Sorry for this. It's a bit crazy at home and at work I didn't see it coming this bad. A bit of illness added and I'm a month out of date. phew.
Well the CL GS is finished now and we know the best 16 of Europe for this season: 3 English, 3 Spanish, 3 Italian, 2 German, 2 French, 1 Russian, 1 Portuguese, that's quite nice according to the ranking. Only 1 'strange' addition was Greece, but if only AZ had been like last year, they might have been taken that second spot and it would be perfect according to the ranking (not takaing into account the exceptional scores Romania and Ukraine made, causing the current ranking a bit to be off balance)
In EL next week still half of the 48 teams will play their last match. And then it will be a lon waiting for the february round
P.S. for now only pdf files are uploaded. rest will follow soon.
And the groups are getting clearer. ome teams have already qualified for CL last 16, Chelsea, ManUtd, Arsenal, why always the English clubs? Well Liverpool seems in real trouble this year.
Looking at the exepcted country ranking, it didn't change that much, though in the graph you can see that France really does much better as expected. Holland can still count on an enormous point amount this year of over 12. Due to PSV in semi's of EL, AZ in quarters and Ajax in last 16. Though that's not that likely to happen, Holland, Portugal and Turkey seem to get more points as Russia and Ukraine, making this for next year (countryranking'11) a closer battle
In the mean time Domestic leagues also go forward. Summerleagues are reaching the end, most champions are known already. Those sheets are updated too
I have updated the predictions with latest rsutls in CL and EL. Spain and Germany had a bad week and seem to forget about he 1st/3rd spot. Ukraine dropped a bit away from Russia, while Romania came a bit closer (despite their bad EL day). Can the 6th spot still be taken over from Russia? Rubin made it clear in Barcelona that they are not giving up the fight yet.
Switzerland has jumped over Greece to take 12th position due to the great work of Basel
Still not many changes in the rankings, though they did happen: Celtic was passed by Hapoel TA, Bilbao passed Austria. Olympiakos passed AZ. This did not do much for Holland, but it raised the Greek ranking a bit.
Currently it still looks like an extreme close fight between Russia and Ukraini for 6th spot. Holland would win the 9th spot race. (If only matches were based on coefficients ;)).
Finaly I finished work on the particpants for the new season. Rosenborg just made it to champion and so is already the second summer league to finsh. It was time!
All is due to changes of course in domestic leagues and performance in CL and EL ;)
This had not very much consequences yet, as the order in the groups hardly did change, as there are still 5 MD to come and so a lot of time to turn things back to ' normal' .
Ukraine however has taken over 6th spot and Romania got a ieniebit closer.
All teams that now are in still play another 6 matches. Russia has lost all their UC teams and haven't drawn too well in CL, one with Wolfsburg and the other one with Barca and Inter... tough luck. Their chance on getting closer to France is gone. I expected Ukraine than take the opportunity to take 6th spot, but they too lost 3 teams. Well Romania could very well take this opportunity to get to 6th spot. Looking at my predictions sheet they won't sd CLuj and Timisoara are put in 4th pot, but you never know! According to my sheet it looks like Holland is profiting from their 4 teams in EL, but I guess Heerenveen is overestimated and the whole EL looks pretty even....
Greece looks to win the race for 12th over Switzreland, Scotland and Denmark. Belgium drops to 16th.
After 2 weeks full of European matches in the middle of the vacation I wonder how much interesting matches will be left in september and oktober. As it looked like the old days with an enormous list of matches going on in all kind of countries. I'm afraid that in September and October, only a couple of mathces are left and mostly coming from the top15 countries
Wel I like the fall back of the champions to the Europa League. Now we know already that there will be a team from Hungary, Moldavia and Latvia playing in the Groupstage.
I fixed the link to the graph. Sorry for not realising this sooner. Though I im interested in the outcomes of all matches, the vacation time lures me outside and not to sit working on the computer to much (for pleasure, as for work I have to)
On the graph we see Portugal falling. THey lost 2 teams this week. Especially Braga was a high coefficient team, it seems that the fight who will e... Read more »
HI all, after being away with Q2 I now have updated the predicted countryranking '10. With AaB, Falkirk, Larissa, Rosenborg, Wisla, Anorthosis we have lost already teams that were expected to fight for a GS spot. Maybe next year.
In my prediction we see a nice fight for spots 7-10, as Ukraine and Romania are ahead, but Portugal and Holland have high coefficiented teams playing. Turkey seems to stay at a distance, but can they mingle in this too? Nice Q3 fight in this is so Shakthar- Timisaora and Sporting-Twente, though they might all end up in EL-GS, the winners of these ties are sure of any GS and it is important to get into the groupstages, as only there the points count for full, and as the spots are limited, every spot you take, your opponent does not.
Normally I don't update the qualification for CL & EL '09 sheets anymore. For latest updates on seeding check Bert's website.
I have made a prediction for the country- and team ranking'10
Check it out!
Well done by Germany, Holland and Portugal, less by France.
But Ukraine keeps their top-9 spot and Holland is losing a EL-sport by dropping to the 10th spot in ranking, despite their fabulous 12 pointer(PSV going to semi final)
This new system is making the qualfication rounds very important. Let's see what awaits us! But I wouldn't be surprised if top-5 teams drop out in Q3 or Q4!
And so Romanian league is set: the final matchday is played and TAS has spoken. And surprise. Timisaora is now in the NC-CLQ3. Is that an easier route to EL-GS? I don't know, if they lose, they will end up in EL-Q4, just like where Dinamo is now. But at least they have an extra chance! If they win, they will bein a GS for sure, so it is an improvement.
All other teams are known now, though a few matches are still to be played. It's waiting for the draw now. and the new season to start. It's time for me to start the predictions for country and teamranking '10. That will be my next step, but will cause some difficulties due to the new system and this double pointing mechanism in the Q-rounds.....
And unexpected all champions are known. I expected in Romania and Bulgaria to have to wait a bit longer. Now all that is not clear yet are the last 2 EL spots of Romania.
And ofcourse some teams that don't get a license ned to be replaced. Or TAS could still change Romanian league-standing, making the title open again. Can that still be done?
The CL and EL looks to become full of good teams again. I am already waiting what surprise we will see next year.
Last Dutch EL-spot is won by NAC. It was called an Intertoto spot ;) as it was for Q2, that starts July 6th..
Next update if there are changes due to info on licenses, Timisaora or just the next MD.
And we have more champions: Bordeaux, Besiktas, Wisla, the CL and UC participant list is almost complete blue. Almost all participants are known, just a couple of league matches left, 5 cups. Already tomorrow most will be known. Let's see if Panathinaikos will make it to CL, and Groningen, Fiorentina? The Non champions Q4 round seems full of CL regular-participants: Arsenal, Lyon, Atletico, Fiorentina, Sporting, Shakthar, Celtic, Panathinaikos.
